Sunday, June 27, 2010

Personal perspective on global labor mobility

In a recent McKinsey Quarterly article on Globalization's Critical Imbalances, I have got to admit that I'm a believer. Moving from the US to Belgium is not easy, but sending money to one country or the other is cake (with a little fee, of course).

The key points from the article are that:
- Unlike capital and commodities, labor is not easy to move around the world
- But it's the changing productivity of labor in the developing world vis-a-vis the developed that has been the most dramatic/ interesting part of the recent evolution of the global economy
- This has put pressure on global exchange rates (yuan should be higher/ dollar and euro lower)
- And has made commodity prices improperly priced in developed/ developing countries

The end result of all of this, of course, is that pressure will mount to revalue currencies. It could happen rapidly, or gradually, but either way... if we want to undo structural unemployment in the US and Europe, it seems like wages will have to reflect productivity rates.

My favorite line in all of this is: "Developed-world politicians must respond to the demands of voters who don’t understand how the global economy works or what has changed in recent years and who mostly want policies that are fiscally unbalanced."

That's such a pithy statement, it's almost worth a tweet. We do live in interesting times...

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